OGCP — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($5.56)
DCF	$1312.08	+23498.5%
Graham Number	$5.98	+7.5%
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: -18.5%
DDM	$2.88	-48.1%
EV/EBITDA	$368.40	+6525.8%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $440.34M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 1.5% / EPS: -41.0%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 7.28%

Computed WACC: 7.28%

Cost of equity (Re)11.88%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.38 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)4.94%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)42.36%

Debt weight (D/V)57.64%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$1948.71

Current Price$5.56

Upside / Downside+34948.7%

Net Debt (used)$1.93B

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	-3.0%	1.0%	5.0%	9.0%	13.0%
7.0%	$1327.10	$1683.65	$2098.45	$2578.55	$3131.50
8.0%	$1013.36	$1300.34	$1633.71	$2019.02	$2462.29
9.0%	$795.96	$1034.92	$1312.08	$1632.01	$1999.62
10.0%	$636.36	$840.22	$1076.32	$1348.49	$1660.87
11.0%	$514.17	$691.28	$896.11	$1131.93	$1402.26

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $0.25

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $6.35

Results

Graham Number$5.98

Current Price$5.56

Margin of Safety+7.5%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 7.28%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 7.28%

Cost of equity (Re)11.88%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.38 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)4.94%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)42.36%

Debt weight (D/V)57.64%

Results

Current Price$5.56

Implied Near-term FCF Growth-20.0%

Historical Revenue Growth1.5%

Historical Earnings Growth-41.0%

Base FCF (TTM)$440.34M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $0.14

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$2.88

Current Price$5.56

Upside / Downside-48.1%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $316.34M

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 11.2×

Net Debt($B)Default: $1.93B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$368.40

Current Price$5.56

Upside / Downside+6525.8%

Implied EV$3.56B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	$1.93B	$1.93B	$1.93B	$1.93B	$1.93B
7.2x	$82.26	$82.26	$82.26	$82.26	$82.26
9.2x	$225.33	$225.33	$225.33	$225.33	$225.33
11.2x	$368.40	$368.40	$368.40	$368.40	$368.40
13.2x	$511.46	$511.46	$511.46	$511.46	$511.46
15.2x	$654.53	$654.53	$654.53	$654.53	$654.53

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