OGN — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($7.19)
DCF	$-18.78	-361.2%
Graham Number	$6.84	-4.9%
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: 24.3%
DDM	$1.65	-77.1%
EV/EBITDA	$7.19	+0.0%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $190.12M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: -5.3% / EPS: —

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 5.03%

Computed WACC: 5.03%

Cost of equity (Re)7.33%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.55 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)5.75%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)17.54%

Debt weight (D/V)82.46%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$1.60

Current Price$7.19

Upside / Downside-77.8%

Net Debt (used)$8.23B

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	-3.0%	1.0%	5.0%	9.0%	13.0%
7.0%	$-18.67	$-16.05	$-13.01	$-9.49	$-5.43
8.0%	$-20.97	$-18.86	$-16.42	$-13.59	$-10.34
9.0%	$-22.56	$-20.81	$-18.78	$-16.43	$-13.73
10.0%	$-23.73	$-22.24	$-20.51	$-18.51	$-16.22
11.0%	$-24.63	$-23.33	$-21.83	$-20.10	$-18.12

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $0.72

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $2.89

Results

Graham Number$6.84

Current Price$7.19

Margin of Safety-4.9%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 5.03%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 5.03%

Cost of equity (Re)7.33%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.55 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)5.75%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)17.54%

Debt weight (D/V)82.46%

Results

Current Price$7.19

Implied Near-term FCF Growth7.4%

Historical Revenue Growth-5.3%

Historical Earnings Growth—

Base FCF (TTM)$190.12M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $0.08

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$1.65

Current Price$7.19

Upside / Downside-77.1%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $1.65B

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 6.1×

Net Debt($B)Default: $8.23B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$7.19

Current Price$7.19

Upside / Downside+0.0%

Implied EV$10.10B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	$4.23B	$6.23B	$8.23B	$10.23B	$12.23B
2.1x	$-2.86	$-10.54	$-18.23	$-25.91	$-33.59
4.1x	$9.85	$2.17	$-5.52	$-13.20	$-20.88
6.1x	$22.56	$14.87	$7.19	$-0.49	$-8.18
8.1x	$35.26	$27.58	$19.90	$12.21	$4.53
10.1x	$47.97	$40.29	$32.61	$24.92	$17.24

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