ORCL — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($145.40)
DCF	$-4826.30	-3419.3%
Graham Number	$35.33	-75.7%
Reverse DCF	—	—
DDM	$41.20	-71.7%
EV/EBITDA	$145.53	+0.1%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: -$10.21B

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 14.2% / EPS: 90.9%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 10.61%

Computed WACC: 10.61%

Cost of equity (Re)13.28%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.63 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)2.72%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)76.03%

Debt weight (D/V)23.97%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$-3533.67

Current Price$145.40

Upside / Downside-2530.3%

Net Debt (used)$111.96B

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	82.9%	86.9%	90.9%	94.9%	98.9%
7.0%	$-6359.19	$-7078.36	$-7861.63	$-8713.22	$-9637.49
8.0%	$-4903.20	$-5456.10	$-6058.26	$-6712.90	$-7423.39
9.0%	$-3914.68	$-4354.72	$-4833.94	$-5354.89	$-5920.25
10.0%	$-3205.19	$-3564.24	$-3955.23	$-4380.26	$-4841.49
11.0%	$-2675.08	$-2973.64	$-3298.73	$-3652.10	$-4035.55

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $5.32

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $10.43

Results

Graham Number$35.33

Current Price$145.40

Margin of Safety-75.7%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 10.61%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 10.61%

Cost of equity (Re)13.28%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.63 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)2.72%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)76.03%

Debt weight (D/V)23.97%

Results

Reverse DCF requires positive TTM free cash flow.

Current Price$145.40

Implied Near-term FCF Growth—

Historical Revenue Growth14.2%

Historical Earnings Growth90.9%

Base FCF (TTM)-$10.21B

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $2.00

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$41.20

Current Price$145.40

Upside / Downside-71.7%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $26.27B

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 20.2×

Net Debt($B)Default: $111.96B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$145.53

Current Price$145.40

Upside / Downside+0.1%

Implied EV$530.23B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	$55.96B	$83.96B	$111.96B	$139.96B	$167.96B
16.2x	$128.46	$118.72	$108.97	$99.23	$89.49
18.2x	$146.74	$136.99	$127.25	$117.51	$107.77
20.2x	$165.01	$155.27	$145.53	$135.79	$126.05
22.2x	$183.29	$173.55	$163.81	$154.07	$144.32
24.2x	$201.57	$191.83	$182.09	$172.34	$162.60

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