ORLY — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($93.88)
DCF	$26.26	-72.0%
Graham Number	—	—
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: 32.8%
DDM	—	—
EV/EBITDA	$94.65	+0.8%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $1.03B

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 7.8% / EPS: 13.9%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 7.17%

Computed WACC: 7.17%

Cost of equity (Re)7.59%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.60 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)4.07%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)90.32%

Debt weight (D/V)9.68%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$41.98

Current Price$93.88

Upside / Downside-55.3%

Net Debt (used)$8.30B

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	5.9%	9.9%	13.9%	17.9%	21.9%
7.0%	$28.41	$35.70	$44.09	$53.70	$64.68
8.0%	$21.08	$26.89	$33.57	$41.21	$49.93
9.0%	$16.03	$20.82	$26.32	$32.61	$39.78
10.0%	$12.35	$16.39	$21.03	$26.34	$32.38
11.0%	$9.54	$13.02	$17.01	$21.57	$26.76

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $2.97

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $-0.91

Results

Graham Number requires positive EPS and positive Book Value per share. BVPS is zero or negative.

Graham Number—

Current Price$93.88

Margin of Safety—

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 7.17%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 7.17%

Cost of equity (Re)7.59%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.60 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)4.07%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)90.32%

Debt weight (D/V)9.68%

Results

Current Price$93.88

Implied Near-term FCF Growth25.8%

Historical Revenue Growth7.8%

Historical Earnings Growth13.9%

Base FCF (TTM)$1.03B

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: —

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

This company does not pay a dividend. DDM is not applicable — the intrinsic value shown uses D0 = $0 unless you enter a hypothetical dividend above.

DDM Intrinsic Value / share—

Current Price$93.88

Upside / Downside—

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $3.97B

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 22.2×

Net Debt($B)Default: $8.30B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$94.65

Current Price$93.88

Upside / Downside+0.8%

Implied EV$87.98B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	$4.30B	$6.30B	$8.30B	$10.30B	$12.30B
18.2x	$80.53	$78.15	$75.77	$73.40	$71.02
20.2x	$89.96	$87.59	$85.21	$82.83	$80.46
22.2x	$99.40	$97.02	$94.65	$92.27	$89.89
24.2x	$108.83	$106.46	$104.08	$101.70	$99.33
26.2x	$118.27	$115.89	$113.52	$111.14	$108.76

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