PCAR — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($124.43)
DCF	$82.39	-33.8%
Graham Number	$61.06	-50.9%
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: 11.3%
DDM	$27.19	-78.1%
EV/EBITDA	$124.43	+0.0%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $2.84B

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: -13.7% / EPS: -35.9%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 8.09%

Computed WACC: 8.09%

Cost of equity (Re)10.04%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.04 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)80.57%

Debt weight (D/V)19.43%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$98.01

Current Price$124.43

Upside / Downside-21.2%

Net Debt (used)$6.53B

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	-3.0%	1.0%	5.0%	9.0%	13.0%
7.0%	$83.21	$102.54	$125.04	$151.08	$181.07
8.0%	$66.19	$81.75	$99.83	$120.73	$144.77
9.0%	$54.40	$67.36	$82.39	$99.74	$119.68
10.0%	$45.74	$56.80	$69.60	$84.37	$101.31
11.0%	$39.12	$48.72	$59.83	$72.62	$87.28

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $4.52

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $36.66

Results

Graham Number$61.06

Current Price$124.43

Margin of Safety-50.9%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 8.09%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 8.09%

Cost of equity (Re)10.04%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.04 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)80.57%

Debt weight (D/V)19.43%

Results

Current Price$124.43

Implied Near-term FCF Growth8.6%

Historical Revenue Growth-13.7%

Historical Earnings Growth-35.9%

Base FCF (TTM)$2.84B

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $1.32

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$27.19

Current Price$124.43

Upside / Downside-78.1%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $3.42B

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 21.0×

Net Debt($B)Default: $6.53B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$124.43

Current Price$124.43

Upside / Downside+0.0%

Implied EV$71.97B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	$2.53B	$4.53B	$6.53B	$8.53B	$10.53B
17.0x	$106.00	$102.20	$98.40	$94.59	$90.79
19.0x	$119.02	$115.22	$111.41	$107.61	$103.81
21.0x	$132.04	$128.23	$124.43	$120.63	$116.83
23.0x	$145.06	$141.25	$137.45	$133.65	$129.84
25.0x	$158.07	$154.27	$150.47	$146.66	$142.86

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