PGR — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($212.34)
DCF	$5.30	-97.5%
Graham Number	$149.62	-29.5%
Reverse DCF	—	—
DDM	$286.34	+34.8%
EV/EBITDA	$213.66	+0.6%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: —

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 12.2% / EPS: 25.2%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 5.90%

Computed WACC: 5.90%

Cost of equity (Re)6.05%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.32 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)4.05%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)94.75%

Debt weight (D/V)5.25%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$5.30

Current Price$212.34

Upside / Downside-97.5%

Net Debt (used)-$3.11B

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	17.2%	21.2%	25.2%	29.2%	33.2%
7.0%	$5.30	$5.30	$5.30	$5.30	$5.30
8.0%	$5.30	$5.30	$5.30	$5.30	$5.30
9.0%	$5.30	$5.30	$5.30	$5.30	$5.30
10.0%	$5.30	$5.30	$5.30	$5.30	$5.30
11.0%	$5.30	$5.30	$5.30	$5.30	$5.30

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $19.23

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $51.74

Results

Graham Number$149.62

Current Price$212.34

Margin of Safety-29.5%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 5.90%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 5.90%

Cost of equity (Re)6.05%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.32 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)4.05%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)94.75%

Debt weight (D/V)5.25%

Results

Reverse DCF requires positive TTM free cash flow.

Current Price$212.34

Implied Near-term FCF Growth—

Historical Revenue Growth12.2%

Historical Earnings Growth25.2%

Base FCF (TTM)—

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $13.90

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$286.34

Current Price$212.34

Upside / Downside+34.8%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $14.81B

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 8.2×

Net Debt($B)Default: -$3.11B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$213.66

Current Price$212.34

Upside / Downside+0.6%

Implied EV$122.12B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	-$5.11B	-$4.11B	-$3.11B	-$2.11B	-$1.11B
4.2x	$116.01	$114.31	$112.60	$110.90	$109.19
6.2x	$166.54	$164.84	$163.13	$161.43	$159.72
8.2x	$217.07	$215.37	$213.66	$211.96	$210.25
10.2x	$267.60	$265.90	$264.19	$262.48	$260.78
12.2x	$318.13	$316.43	$314.72	$313.01	$311.31

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