PHM — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($133.72)
DCF	$130.39	-2.5%
Graham Number	$129.90	-2.9%
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: 5.4%
DDM	$21.42	-84.0%
EV/EBITDA	$133.85	+0.1%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $1.45B

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: -6.3% / EPS: -42.1%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 10.57%

Computed WACC: 10.57%

Cost of equity (Re)11.44%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.30 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)1.61%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)91.48%

Debt weight (D/V)8.52%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$104.31

Current Price$133.72

Upside / Downside-22.0%

Net Debt (used)$415.34M

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	-3.0%	1.0%	5.0%	9.0%	13.0%
7.0%	$131.53	$158.57	$190.02	$226.43	$268.36
8.0%	$107.74	$129.50	$154.78	$184.00	$217.61
9.0%	$91.26	$109.38	$130.39	$154.65	$182.53
10.0%	$79.16	$94.61	$112.52	$133.16	$156.84
11.0%	$69.89	$83.32	$98.85	$116.73	$137.23

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $11.13

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $67.38

Results

Graham Number$129.90

Current Price$133.72

Margin of Safety-2.9%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 10.57%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 10.57%

Cost of equity (Re)11.44%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.30 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)1.61%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)91.48%

Debt weight (D/V)8.52%

Results

Current Price$133.72

Implied Near-term FCF Growth9.3%

Historical Revenue Growth-6.3%

Historical Earnings Growth-42.1%

Base FCF (TTM)$1.45B

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $1.04

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$21.42

Current Price$133.72

Upside / Downside-84.0%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $3.11B

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 8.4×

Net Debt($B)Default: $415.34M

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$133.85

Current Price$133.72

Upside / Downside+0.1%

Implied EV$26.13B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	-$1.58B	-$584.66M	$415.34M	$1.42B	$2.42B
4.4x	$79.49	$74.29	$69.08	$63.88	$58.67
6.4x	$111.88	$106.67	$101.47	$96.26	$91.06
8.4x	$144.26	$139.06	$133.85	$128.65	$123.44
10.4x	$176.65	$171.44	$166.24	$161.03	$155.83
12.4x	$209.03	$203.83	$198.62	$193.42	$188.21

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