PSX — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($160.18)
DCF	$4.9767339909324095e+33	+3.106963410495948e+33%
Graham Number	$132.75	-17.1%
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: 28.5%
DDM	$104.65	-34.7%
EV/EBITDA	$163.04	+1.8%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $1.26B

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 1.3% / EPS: 242728.4%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 7.91%

Computed WACC: 7.91%

Cost of equity (Re)9.07%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.87 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)5.63%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)74.83%

Debt weight (D/V)25.17%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$6.545455392598918e+33

Current Price$160.18

Upside / Downside+4.086312518790684e+33%

Net Debt (used)$20.47B

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	242720.4%	242724.4%	242728.4%	242732.4%	242736.4%
7.0%	$8.490847785638367e+33	$8.491547160775802e+33	$8.492246581997443e+33	$8.492946049305579e+33	$8.493645562702477e+33
8.0%	$6.389173153393356e+33	$6.38969941755037e+33	$6.39022571638472e+33	$6.390752049898126e+33	$6.391278418092297e+33
9.0%	$4.975914250558718e+33	$4.9763241072421374e+33	$4.9767339909324095e+33	$4.9771439016308715e+33	$4.9775538393388555e+33
10.0%	$3.9722161664820845e+33	$3.972543350445039e+33	$3.9728705559672603e+33	$3.973197783049812e+33	$3.973525031693762e+33
11.0%	$3.2307707951099446e+33	$3.2310369076143604e+33	$3.2313030376538354e+33	$3.231569185229236e+33	$3.231835350341431e+33

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $10.80

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $72.53

Results

Graham Number$132.75

Current Price$160.18

Margin of Safety-17.1%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 7.91%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 7.91%

Cost of equity (Re)9.07%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.87 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)5.63%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)74.83%

Debt weight (D/V)25.17%

Results

Current Price$160.18

Implied Near-term FCF Growth24.7%

Historical Revenue Growth1.3%

Historical Earnings Growth242728.4%

Base FCF (TTM)$1.26B

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $5.08

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$104.65

Current Price$160.18

Upside / Downside-34.7%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $6.67B

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 12.9×

Net Debt($B)Default: $20.47B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$163.04

Current Price$160.18

Upside / Downside+1.8%

Implied EV$85.81B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	$10.47B	$15.47B	$20.47B	$25.47B	$30.47B
8.9x	$121.40	$108.92	$96.45	$83.97	$71.49
10.9x	$154.70	$142.22	$129.75	$117.27	$104.79
12.9x	$188.00	$175.52	$163.04	$150.57	$138.09
14.9x	$221.29	$208.82	$196.34	$183.86	$171.39
16.9x	$254.59	$242.12	$229.64	$217.16	$204.69

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