QFIN

QFIN — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

ModelIntrinsic Valuevs Price ($14.56)
DCF$-582.73-4102.3%
Graham Number$66.11+354.1%
Reverse DCF
DDM$30.08+106.6%
EV/EBITDA$29.49+102.5%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Yahoo: -$2.01B
Rev: 19.1% / EPS: -11.3%
Default: 9% (no SEC data)

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$-583.79
Current Price$14.56
Upside / Downside-4109.5%
Net Debt (used)-$4.00B
Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)
WACC \ Near-term11.1%15.1%19.1%23.1%27.1%
7.0%$-635.66$-757.88$-897.85$-1057.45$-1238.70
8.0%$-504.00$-600.88$-711.74$-838.05$-981.41
9.0%$-413.43$-492.91$-583.79$-687.26$-804.61
10.0%$-347.47$-414.32$-490.68$-577.56$-676.03
11.0%$-297.41$-354.69$-420.06$-494.39$-578.57

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

Graham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)
Yahoo: $7.15
Yahoo: $27.17

Results

Graham Number$66.11
Current Price$14.56
Margin of Safety+354.1%
Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

Default: 9% (no SEC data)

Results

Reverse DCF requires positive TTM free cash flow.
Current Price$14.56
Implied Near-term FCF Growth
Historical Revenue Growth19.1%
Historical Earnings Growth-11.3%
Base FCF (TTM)-$2.01B
Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Yahoo: $1.46

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$30.08
Current Price$14.56
Upside / Downside+106.6%
Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

Yahoo: $9.42B
Current: -0.0×
Default: -$4.00B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$29.49
Current Price$14.56
Upside / Downside+102.5%
Implied EV-$160.11M
Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)
Mult \ Net Debt-$6.00B-$5.00B-$4.00B-$3.00B-$2.00B
-4.0x$-244.54$-252.22$-259.90$-267.58$-275.26
-2.0x$-99.84$-107.52$-115.21$-122.89$-130.57
-0.0x$44.85$37.17$29.49$21.81$14.12
2.0x$189.54$181.86$174.18$166.50$158.82
4.0x$334.24$326.56$318.88$311.19$303.51