RAIL — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($14.35)
DCF	$87.19	+507.6%
Graham Number	—	—
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: 13.1%
DDM	—	—
EV/EBITDA	$14.35	-0.0%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $12.95M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 41.7% / EPS: —

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 9.10%

Computed WACC: 9.10%

Cost of equity (Re)14.15%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.79 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)64.31%

Debt weight (D/V)35.69%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$85.27

Current Price$14.35

Upside / Downside+494.2%

Net Debt (used)$90.07M

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	33.7%	37.7%	41.7%	45.7%	49.7%
7.0%	$103.70	$120.56	$139.48	$160.63	$184.21
8.0%	$80.39	$93.56	$108.32	$124.83	$143.23
9.0%	$64.46	$75.10	$87.03	$100.37	$115.23
10.0%	$52.94	$61.76	$71.65	$82.69	$95.00
11.0%	$44.27	$51.72	$60.07	$69.39	$79.77

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $2.52

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $-4.76

Results

Graham Number requires positive EPS and positive Book Value per share. BVPS is zero or negative.

Graham Number—

Current Price$14.35

Margin of Safety—

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 9.10%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 9.10%

Cost of equity (Re)14.15%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.79 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)64.31%

Debt weight (D/V)35.69%

Results

Current Price$14.35

Implied Near-term FCF Growth13.4%

Historical Revenue Growth41.7%

Historical Earnings Growth—

Base FCF (TTM)$12.95M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: —

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

This company does not pay a dividend. DDM is not applicable — the intrinsic value shown uses D0 = $0 unless you enter a hypothetical dividend above.

DDM Intrinsic Value / share—

Current Price$14.35

Upside / Downside—

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $43.52M

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 8.4×

Net Debt($B)Default: $90.07M

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$14.35

Current Price$14.35

Upside / Downside-0.0%

Implied EV$363.84M

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	-$1.91B	-$909.93M	$90.07M	$1.09B	$2.09B
4.4x	$110.05	$57.64	$5.23	$-47.19	$-99.60
6.4x	$114.61	$62.20	$9.79	$-42.63	$-95.04
8.4x	$119.18	$66.76	$14.35	$-38.06	$-90.48
10.4x	$123.74	$71.32	$18.91	$-33.50	$-85.92
12.4x	$128.30	$75.89	$23.47	$-28.94	$-81.35

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