RLX

RLX — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

ModelIntrinsic Valuevs Price ($2.42)
DCF$102.23+4124.4%
Graham Number$1.98-18.3%
Reverse DCFimplied g: -20.0%
DDM$2.06-14.9%
EV/EBITDA$3.33+37.7%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Yahoo: $367.28M
Rev: 52.2% / EPS: 21.7%
Default: 9% (no SEC data)

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$102.23
Current Price$2.42
Upside / Downside+4124.4%
Net Debt (used)-$8.30B
Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)
WACC \ Near-term44.2%48.2%52.2%56.2%60.2%
7.0%$122.54$138.93$157.18$177.44$199.86
8.0%$97.59$110.33$124.51$140.25$157.67
9.0%$80.57$90.82$102.23$114.89$128.89
10.0%$68.30$76.76$86.16$96.60$108.15
11.0%$59.08$66.19$74.09$82.86$92.56

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

Graham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)
Yahoo: $0.09
Yahoo: $1.93

Results

Graham Number$1.98
Current Price$2.42
Margin of Safety-18.3%
Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

Default: 9% (no SEC data)

Results

Current Price$2.42
Implied Near-term FCF Growth-20.0%
Historical Revenue Growth52.2%
Historical Earnings Growth21.7%
Base FCF (TTM)$367.28M
Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Yahoo: $0.10

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$2.06
Current Price$2.42
Upside / Downside-14.9%
Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

Yahoo: $233.65M
Current: -22.6×
Default: -$8.30B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$3.33
Current Price$2.42
Upside / Downside+37.7%
Implied EV-$5.27B
Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)
Mult \ Net Debt-$12.30B-$10.30B-$8.30B-$6.30B-$4.30B
-26.6x$6.70$4.50$2.31$0.11$-2.09
-24.6x$7.22$5.02$2.82$0.62$-1.58
-22.6x$7.73$5.53$3.33$1.13$-1.06
-20.6x$8.24$6.05$3.85$1.65$-0.55
-18.6x$8.76$6.56$4.36$2.16$-0.04