SAIA — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($407.79)
DCF	$-81.42	-120.0%
Graham Number	$144.44	-64.6%
Reverse DCF	—	—
DDM	—	—
EV/EBITDA	$406.06	-0.4%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: -$107.31M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 0.1% / EPS: -37.6%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 15.53%

Computed WACC: 15.53%

Cost of equity (Re)15.76%(Rf 4.30% + β 2.08 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)9.21%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)97.27%

Debt weight (D/V)2.73%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$-45.61

Current Price$407.79

Upside / Downside-111.2%

Net Debt (used)$285.27M

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	-3.0%	1.0%	5.0%	9.0%	13.0%
7.0%	$-82.03	$-96.45	$-113.23	$-132.65	$-155.02
8.0%	$-69.34	$-80.95	$-94.43	$-110.02	$-127.95
9.0%	$-60.54	$-70.21	$-81.42	$-94.36	$-109.23
10.0%	$-54.09	$-62.33	$-71.89	$-82.90	$-95.53
11.0%	$-49.15	$-56.31	$-64.60	$-74.13	$-85.07

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $9.52

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $97.40

Results

Graham Number$144.44

Current Price$407.79

Margin of Safety-64.6%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 15.53%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 15.53%

Cost of equity (Re)15.76%(Rf 4.30% + β 2.08 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)9.21%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)97.27%

Debt weight (D/V)2.73%

Results

Reverse DCF requires positive TTM free cash flow.

Current Price$407.79

Implied Near-term FCF Growth—

Historical Revenue Growth0.1%

Historical Earnings Growth-37.6%

Base FCF (TTM)-$107.31M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: —

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

This company does not pay a dividend. DDM is not applicable — the intrinsic value shown uses D0 = $0 unless you enter a hypothetical dividend above.

DDM Intrinsic Value / share—

Current Price$407.79

Upside / Downside—

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $588.32M

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 18.9×

Net Debt($B)Default: $285.27M

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$406.06

Current Price$407.79

Upside / Downside-0.4%

Implied EV$11.10B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	-$1.71B	-$714.73M	$285.27M	$1.29B	$2.29B
14.9x	$392.80	$355.27	$317.74	$280.20	$242.67
16.9x	$436.97	$399.43	$361.90	$324.37	$286.83
18.9x	$481.13	$443.60	$406.06	$368.53	$331.00
20.9x	$525.29	$487.76	$450.23	$412.69	$375.16
22.9x	$569.46	$531.92	$494.39	$456.86	$419.32

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