SBUX — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($96.76)
DCF	$-42.05	-143.5%
Graham Number	—	—
Reverse DCF	—	—
DDM	$51.09	-47.2%
EV/EBITDA	$96.77	+0.0%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: -$1.44B

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 5.5% / EPS: -62.5%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 8.15%

Computed WACC: 8.15%

Cost of equity (Re)9.40%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.93 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)3.43%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)81.22%

Debt weight (D/V)18.78%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$-45.60

Current Price$96.76

Upside / Downside-147.1%

Net Debt (used)$21.89B

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	-2.5%	1.5%	5.5%	9.5%	13.5%
7.0%	$-42.36	$-47.02	$-52.45	$-58.72	$-65.95
8.0%	$-38.22	$-41.97	$-46.33	$-51.36	$-57.15
9.0%	$-35.35	$-38.47	$-42.09	$-46.27	$-51.06
10.0%	$-33.24	$-35.91	$-38.99	$-42.54	$-46.61
11.0%	$-31.63	$-33.95	$-36.62	$-39.69	$-43.22

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $1.20

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $-7.36

Results

Graham Number requires positive EPS and positive Book Value per share. BVPS is zero or negative.

Graham Number—

Current Price$96.76

Margin of Safety—

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 8.15%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 8.15%

Cost of equity (Re)9.40%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.93 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)3.43%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)81.22%

Debt weight (D/V)18.78%

Results

Reverse DCF requires positive TTM free cash flow.

Current Price$96.76

Implied Near-term FCF Growth—

Historical Revenue Growth5.5%

Historical Earnings Growth-62.5%

Base FCF (TTM)-$1.44B

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $2.48

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$51.09

Current Price$96.76

Upside / Downside-47.2%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $5.30B

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 24.9×

Net Debt($B)Default: $21.89B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$96.77

Current Price$96.76

Upside / Downside+0.0%

Implied EV$132.14B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	$11.89B	$16.89B	$21.89B	$26.89B	$31.89B
20.9x	$86.95	$82.56	$78.17	$73.78	$69.39
22.9x	$96.24	$91.86	$87.47	$83.08	$78.69
24.9x	$105.54	$101.16	$96.77	$92.38	$87.99
26.9x	$114.84	$110.45	$106.07	$101.68	$97.29
28.9x	$124.14	$119.75	$115.36	$110.98	$106.59

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