SHEL

SHEL — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

ModelIntrinsic Valuevs Price ($83.51)
DCF$24501604.15+29339624.8%
Graham Number$64.05-23.3%
Reverse DCFimplied g: -0.1%
DDM$61.39-26.5%
EV/EBITDA$170.40+104.0%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Yahoo: $21.64B
Rev: -3.3% / EPS: 370.4%
Default: 9% (no SEC data)

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$24501604.15
Current Price$83.51
Upside / Downside+29339624.8%
Net Debt (used)$45.43B
Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)
WACC \ Near-term362.4%366.4%370.4%374.4%378.4%
7.0%$37945099.72$39614926.03$41343028.25$43130918.59$44980135.19
8.0%$28712985.21$29976531.32$31284174.15$32637057.99$34036346.72
9.0%$22487875.55$23477471.91$24501604.15$25561168.47$26657076.39
10.0%$18053573.21$18848028.56$19670209.39$20520835.16$21400637.65
11.0%$14767405.47$15417246.19$16089765.37$16785551.49$17505203.11

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

Graham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)
Yahoo: $6.00
Yahoo: $30.38

Results

Graham Number$64.05
Current Price$83.51
Margin of Safety-23.3%
Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

Default: 9% (no SEC data)

Results

Current Price$83.51
Implied Near-term FCF Growth-0.1%
Historical Revenue Growth-3.3%
Historical Earnings Growth370.4%
Base FCF (TTM)$21.64B
Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Yahoo: $2.98

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$61.39
Current Price$83.51
Upside / Downside-26.5%
Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

Yahoo: $53.26B
Current: 9.9×
Default: $45.43B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$170.40
Current Price$83.51
Upside / Downside+104.0%
Implied EV$525.66B
Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)
Mult \ Net Debt$23.43B$34.43B$45.43B$56.43B$67.43B
5.9x$102.61$98.71$94.81$90.90$87.00
7.9x$140.41$136.51$132.60$128.70$124.80
9.9x$178.20$174.30$170.40$166.49$162.59
11.9x$216.00$212.09$208.19$204.29$200.39
13.9x$253.79$249.89$245.99$242.08$238.18