SHEN — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($13.86)
DCF	$-108.42	-882.3%
Graham Number	—	—
Reverse DCF	—	—
DDM	$2.27	-83.7%
EV/EBITDA	$15.46	+11.5%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: -$268.90M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 7.2% / EPS: —

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 6.15%

Computed WACC: 6.15%

Cost of equity (Re)8.17%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.70 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)4.79%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)54.01%

Debt weight (D/V)45.99%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$-187.12

Current Price$13.86

Upside / Downside-1450.1%

Net Debt (used)$625.28M

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	-0.8%	3.2%	7.2%	11.2%	15.2%
7.0%	$-110.47	$-130.24	$-153.18	$-179.67	$-210.10
8.0%	$-92.46	$-108.33	$-126.72	$-147.92	$-172.26
9.0%	$-80.00	$-93.17	$-108.42	$-125.98	$-146.12
10.0%	$-70.86	$-82.07	$-95.03	$-109.94	$-127.01
11.0%	$-63.88	$-73.60	$-84.81	$-97.70	$-112.44

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $-0.71

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $16.04

Results

Graham Number requires positive EPS and positive Book Value per share. EPS is zero or negative.

Graham Number—

Current Price$13.86

Margin of Safety—

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 6.15%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 6.15%

Cost of equity (Re)8.17%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.70 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)4.79%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)54.01%

Debt weight (D/V)45.99%

Results

Reverse DCF requires positive TTM free cash flow.

Current Price$13.86

Implied Near-term FCF Growth—

Historical Revenue Growth7.2%

Historical Earnings Growth—

Base FCF (TTM)-$268.90M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $0.11

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$2.27

Current Price$13.86

Upside / Downside-83.7%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $109.55M

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 13.5×

Net Debt($B)Default: $625.28M

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$15.46

Current Price$13.86

Upside / Downside+11.5%

Implied EV$1.48B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	-$1.37B	-$374.72M	$625.28M	$1.63B	$2.63B
9.5x	$43.70	$25.62	$7.54	$-10.55	$-28.63
11.5x	$47.66	$29.58	$11.50	$-6.58	$-24.67
13.5x	$51.63	$33.54	$15.46	$-2.62	$-20.71
15.5x	$55.59	$37.50	$19.42	$1.34	$-16.74
17.5x	$59.55	$41.47	$23.38	$5.30	$-12.78

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