SMG — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($70.38)
DCF	$44.45	-36.8%
Graham Number	—	—
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: 9.2%
DDM	$54.38	-22.7%
EV/EBITDA	$70.38	+0.0%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $308.32M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: -3.3% / EPS: —

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 10.70%

Computed WACC: 10.70%

Cost of equity (Re)14.88%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.92 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)5.95%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)58.97%

Debt weight (D/V)41.03%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$24.89

Current Price$70.38

Upside / Downside-64.6%

Net Debt (used)$2.83B

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	-3.0%	1.0%	5.0%	9.0%	13.0%
7.0%	$45.25	$64.27	$86.40	$112.01	$141.51
8.0%	$28.51	$43.82	$61.60	$82.16	$105.81
9.0%	$16.91	$29.66	$44.45	$61.51	$81.13
10.0%	$8.40	$19.27	$31.87	$46.39	$63.05
11.0%	$1.88	$11.33	$22.25	$34.83	$49.26

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $2.79

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $-8.63

Results

Graham Number requires positive EPS and positive Book Value per share. BVPS is zero or negative.

Graham Number—

Current Price$70.38

Margin of Safety—

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 10.70%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 10.70%

Cost of equity (Re)14.88%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.92 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)5.95%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)58.97%

Debt weight (D/V)41.03%

Results

Current Price$70.38

Implied Near-term FCF Growth13.6%

Historical Revenue Growth-3.3%

Historical Earnings Growth—

Base FCF (TTM)$308.32M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $2.64

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$54.38

Current Price$70.38

Upside / Downside-22.7%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $526.40M

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 13.1×

Net Debt($B)Default: $2.83B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$70.38

Current Price$70.38

Upside / Downside+0.0%

Implied EV$6.92B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	$833.40M	$1.83B	$2.83B	$3.83B	$4.83B
9.1x	$68.56	$51.34	$34.11	$16.88	$-0.35
11.1x	$86.70	$69.47	$52.24	$35.02	$17.79
13.1x	$104.84	$87.61	$70.38	$53.15	$35.92
15.1x	$122.98	$105.75	$88.52	$71.29	$54.06
17.1x	$141.12	$123.89	$106.66	$89.43	$72.20

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