SPG — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($203.16)
DCF	$18048626.65	+8883847.0%
Graham Number	$71.05	-65.0%
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: 19.4%
DDM	$178.19	-12.3%
EV/EBITDA	$207.72	+2.2%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $2.34B

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 13.2% / EPS: 358.1%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 9.48%

Computed WACC: 9.48%

Cost of equity (Re)11.98%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.40 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)3.70%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)72.41%

Debt weight (D/V)27.59%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$16215544.54

Current Price$203.16

Upside / Downside+7981562.0%

Net Debt (used)$28.38B

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	350.1%	354.1%	358.1%	362.1%	366.1%
7.0%	$27900411.21	$29162354.48	$30469552.68	$31823212.22	$33224560.76
8.0%	$21116309.75	$22071399.76	$23060740.33	$24085244.49	$25145841.38
9.0%	$16541453.58	$17289617.54	$18064611.26	$18867149.98	$19697961.51
10.0%	$13282345.53	$13883096.51	$14505390.73	$15149802.51	$15816916.24
11.0%	$10866832.22	$11358327.14	$11867447.18	$12394662.19	$12940450.28

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $14.12

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $15.89

Results

Graham Number$71.05

Current Price$203.16

Margin of Safety-65.0%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 9.48%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 9.48%

Cost of equity (Re)11.98%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.40 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)3.70%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)72.41%

Debt weight (D/V)27.59%

Results

Current Price$203.16

Implied Near-term FCF Growth20.9%

Historical Revenue Growth13.2%

Historical Earnings Growth358.1%

Base FCF (TTM)$2.34B

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $8.65

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$178.19

Current Price$203.16

Upside / Downside-12.3%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $4.70B

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 20.4×

Net Debt($B)Default: $28.38B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$207.72

Current Price$203.16

Upside / Downside+2.2%

Implied EV$95.93B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	$14.38B	$21.38B	$28.38B	$35.38B	$42.38B
16.4x	$192.91	$171.39	$149.87	$128.34	$106.82
18.4x	$221.84	$200.32	$178.79	$157.27	$135.74
20.4x	$250.77	$229.24	$207.72	$186.19	$164.67
22.4x	$279.69	$258.17	$236.64	$215.12	$193.59
24.4x	$308.62	$287.09	$265.57	$244.04	$222.52

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