TALO — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($13.29)
DCF	$29.00	+118.1%
Graham Number	—	—
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: -5.1%
DDM	—	—
EV/EBITDA	$12.90	-3.0%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $334.77M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: -19.2% / EPS: —

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 8.39%

Computed WACC: 8.39%

Cost of equity (Re)7.11%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.51 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)13.35%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)62.54%

Debt weight (D/V)37.46%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$32.65

Current Price$13.29

Upside / Downside+145.6%

Net Debt (used)$990.63M

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	-3.0%	1.0%	5.0%	9.0%	13.0%
7.0%	$29.30	$36.41	$44.69	$54.27	$65.30
8.0%	$23.04	$28.76	$35.42	$43.10	$51.95
9.0%	$18.70	$23.47	$29.00	$35.38	$42.72
10.0%	$15.52	$19.58	$24.30	$29.73	$35.96
11.0%	$13.08	$16.61	$20.70	$25.40	$30.80

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $-2.82

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $12.87

Results

Graham Number requires positive EPS and positive Book Value per share. EPS is zero or negative.

Graham Number—

Current Price$13.29

Margin of Safety—

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 8.39%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 8.39%

Cost of equity (Re)7.11%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.51 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)13.35%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)62.54%

Debt weight (D/V)37.46%

Results

Current Price$13.29

Implied Near-term FCF Growth-6.6%

Historical Revenue Growth-19.2%

Historical Earnings Growth—

Base FCF (TTM)$334.77M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: —

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

This company does not pay a dividend. DDM is not applicable — the intrinsic value shown uses D0 = $0 unless you enter a hypothetical dividend above.

DDM Intrinsic Value / share—

Current Price$13.29

Upside / Downside—

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $730.00M

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 4.3×

Net Debt($B)Default: $990.63M

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$12.90

Current Price$13.29

Upside / Downside-3.0%

Implied EV$3.16B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	-$1.01B	-$9.37M	$990.63M	$1.99B	$2.99B
0.3x	$7.44	$1.51	$-4.43	$-10.36	$-16.30
2.3x	$16.10	$10.17	$4.24	$-1.70	$-7.63
4.3x	$24.77	$18.83	$12.90	$6.97	$1.03
6.3x	$33.43	$27.50	$21.56	$15.63	$9.70
8.3x	$42.10	$36.16	$30.23	$24.29	$18.36

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