TOL

TOL — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

ModelIntrinsic Valuevs Price ($154.28)
DCF$497.63+222.5%
Graham Number$165.20+7.1%
Reverse DCFimplied g: 5.9%
DDM$20.60-86.6%
EV/EBITDA$154.33+0.0%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Yahoo: $878.73M
Rev: 15.4% / EPS: 25.1%
Computed: 10.28%
Computed WACC: 10.28%
Cost of equity (Re)12.28%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.45 × ERP 5.50%)
Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)
Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)
Equity weight (E/V)83.70%
Debt weight (D/V)16.30%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$398.81
Current Price$154.28
Upside / Downside+158.5%
Net Debt (used)$1.65B
Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)
WACC \ Near-term17.1%21.1%25.1%29.1%33.1%
7.0%$556.89$657.69$772.43$902.51$1049.46
8.0%$440.02$519.53$609.98$712.47$828.19
9.0%$359.80$424.72$498.53$582.11$676.43
10.0%$301.52$355.87$417.60$487.48$566.30
11.0%$257.41$303.76$356.38$415.91$483.01

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

Graham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)
Yahoo: $13.67
Yahoo: $88.73

Results

Graham Number$165.20
Current Price$154.28
Margin of Safety+7.1%
Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

Computed: 10.28%
Computed WACC: 10.28%
Cost of equity (Re)12.28%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.45 × ERP 5.50%)
Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)
Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)
Equity weight (E/V)83.70%
Debt weight (D/V)16.30%

Results

Current Price$154.28
Implied Near-term FCF Growth9.2%
Historical Revenue Growth15.4%
Historical Earnings Growth25.1%
Base FCF (TTM)$878.73M
Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Yahoo: $1.00

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$20.60
Current Price$154.28
Upside / Downside-86.6%
Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

Yahoo: $1.89B
Current: 8.6×
Default: $1.65B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$154.33
Current Price$154.28
Upside / Downside+0.0%
Implied EV$16.27B
Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)
Mult \ Net Debt$1.65B$1.65B$1.65B$1.65B$1.65B
4.6x$74.33$74.33$74.33$74.33$74.33
6.6x$114.33$114.33$114.33$114.33$114.33
8.6x$154.33$154.33$154.33$154.33$154.33
10.6x$194.33$194.33$194.33$194.33$194.33
12.6x$234.33$234.33$234.33$234.33$234.33