TRN — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($34.60)
DCF	$-499940046.36	-1444913528.8%
Graham Number	$30.88	-10.7%
Reverse DCF	—	—
DDM	$25.54	-26.2%
EV/EBITDA	$35.03	+1.3%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: -$455.41M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: -2.9% / EPS: 574.1%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 4.08%

Computed WACC: 4.08%

Cost of equity (Re)12.28%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.45 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)33.27%

Debt weight (D/V)66.73%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$-3060671331.38

Current Price$34.60

Upside / Downside-8845870999.9%

Net Debt (used)$5.35B

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	566.1%	570.1%	574.1%	578.1%	582.1%
7.0%	$-797425584.07	$-821657920.60	$-846475811.19	$-871889804.37	$-897910574.60
8.0%	$-602188505.60	$-620487920.42	$-639229524.89	$-658421284.88	$-678071261.36
9.0%	$-470668168.47	$-484970905.35	$-499619255.29	$-514619444.37	$-529977773.01
10.0%	$-377080806.25	$-388539583.94	$-400275252.67	$-412292800.52	$-424597275.11
11.0%	$-307802980.69	$-317156524.76	$-326736088.57	$-336545743.77	$-346589610.63

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $3.14

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $13.50

Results

Graham Number$30.88

Current Price$34.60

Margin of Safety-10.7%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 4.08%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 4.08%

Cost of equity (Re)12.28%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.45 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)33.27%

Debt weight (D/V)66.73%

Results

Reverse DCF requires positive TTM free cash flow.

Current Price$34.60

Implied Near-term FCF Growth—

Historical Revenue Growth-2.9%

Historical Earnings Growth574.1%

Base FCF (TTM)-$455.41M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $1.24

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$25.54

Current Price$34.60

Upside / Downside-26.2%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $662.80M

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 12.3×

Net Debt($B)Default: $5.35B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$35.03

Current Price$34.60

Upside / Downside+1.3%

Implied EV$8.15B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	$3.35B	$4.35B	$5.35B	$6.35B	$7.35B
8.3x	$26.88	$14.35	$1.83	$-10.70	$-23.22
10.3x	$43.48	$30.96	$18.43	$5.91	$-6.62
12.3x	$60.09	$47.56	$35.03	$22.51	$9.98
14.3x	$76.69	$64.16	$51.64	$39.11	$26.59
16.3x	$93.29	$80.77	$68.24	$55.72	$43.19

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