TSM

TSM — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

ModelIntrinsic Valuevs Price ($374.58)
DCF$12195.44+3155.8%
Graham Number$39.92-89.3%
Reverse DCFimplied g: -20.0%
DDM$72.92-80.5%
EV/EBITDA$1880.65+402.1%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Yahoo: $643.45B
Rev: 20.5% / EPS: 35.0%
Default: 9% (no SEC data)

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$12195.44
Current Price$374.58
Upside / Downside+3155.8%
Net Debt (used)-$2.00T
Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)
WACC \ Near-term27.0%31.0%35.0%39.0%43.0%
7.0%$14035.21$16262.96$18775.89$21600.72$24765.78
8.0%$11154.46$12900.28$14868.81$17080.86$19558.49
9.0%$9182.75$10599.09$12195.44$13988.57$15996.31
10.0%$7754.90$8932.93$10260.09$11750.29$13418.23
11.0%$6677.68$7676.16$8800.55$10062.56$11474.58

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

Graham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)
Yahoo: $10.60
Yahoo: $6.68

Results

Graham Number$39.92
Current Price$374.58
Margin of Safety-89.3%
Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

Default: 9% (no SEC data)

Results

Current Price$374.58
Implied Near-term FCF Growth-20.0%
Historical Revenue Growth20.5%
Historical Earnings Growth35.0%
Base FCF (TTM)$643.45B
Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Yahoo: $3.54

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$72.92
Current Price$374.58
Upside / Downside-80.5%
Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

Yahoo: $2.61T
Current: 3.0×
Default: -$2.00T

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$1880.65
Current Price$374.58
Upside / Downside+402.1%
Implied EV$7.75T
Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)
Mult \ Net Debt-$3.00T-$2.50T-$2.00T-$1.50T-$1.00T
-1.0x$57.25$-39.15$-135.56$-231.96$-328.37
1.0x$1065.35$968.95$872.54$776.14$679.74
3.0x$2073.46$1977.05$1880.65$1784.24$1687.84
5.0x$3081.56$2985.15$2888.75$2792.35$2695.94
7.0x$4089.66$3993.26$3896.85$3800.45$3704.04