TWFG

TWFG — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

ModelIntrinsic Valuevs Price ($20.78)
DCF$-352.62-1796.9%
Graham Number$7.24-65.2%
Reverse DCF
DDM
EV/EBITDA$32.33+55.6%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Yahoo: -$31.86M
Rev: 21.3% / EPS: 46.2%
Default: 9% (no SEC data)

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$-352.62
Current Price$20.78
Upside / Downside-1796.9%
Net Debt (used)-$136.84M
Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)
WACC \ Near-term38.2%42.2%46.2%50.2%54.2%
7.0%$-424.22$-489.51$-562.50$-643.85$-734.26
8.0%$-330.04$-380.91$-437.77$-501.12$-571.52
9.0%$-265.74$-306.77$-352.62$-403.70$-460.44
10.0%$-219.30$-253.23$-291.14$-333.36$-380.25
11.0%$-184.37$-212.97$-244.91$-280.47$-319.96

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

Graham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)
Yahoo: $0.44
Yahoo: $5.29

Results

Graham Number$7.24
Current Price$20.78
Margin of Safety-65.2%
Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

Default: 9% (no SEC data)

Results

Reverse DCF requires positive TTM free cash flow.
Current Price$20.78
Implied Near-term FCF Growth
Historical Revenue Growth21.3%
Historical Earnings Growth46.2%
Base FCF (TTM)-$31.86M
Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Yahoo: —

Results

This company does not pay a dividend. DDM is not applicable — the intrinsic value shown uses D0 = $0 unless you enter a hypothetical dividend above.
DDM Intrinsic Value / share
Current Price$20.78
Upside / Downside
Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

Yahoo: $44.15M
Current: 7.9×
Default: -$136.84M

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$32.33
Current Price$20.78
Upside / Downside+55.6%
Implied EV$349.01M
Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)
Mult \ Net Debt-$2.14B-$1.14B-$136.84M$863.16M$1.86B
3.9x$153.66$87.12$20.58$-45.96$-112.50
5.9x$159.53$92.99$26.45$-40.09$-106.63
7.9x$165.41$98.87$32.33$-34.21$-100.75
9.9x$171.28$104.74$38.20$-28.34$-94.88
11.9x$177.16$110.62$44.08$-22.46$-89.00