UAL — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($106.30)
DCF	$13.42	-87.4%
Graham Number	$104.13	-2.0%
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: 22.6%
DDM	—	—
EV/EBITDA	$106.30	-0.0%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $1.10B

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 4.8% / EPS: 8.1%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 5.91%

Computed WACC: 5.91%

Cost of equity (Re)11.25%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.26 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)52.58%

Debt weight (D/V)47.42%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$81.09

Current Price$106.30

Upside / Downside-23.7%

Net Debt (used)$18.80B

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	0.1%	4.1%	8.1%	12.1%	16.1%
7.0%	$15.15	$29.67	$46.50	$65.91	$88.19
8.0%	$1.75	$13.39	$26.86	$42.39	$60.19
9.0%	$-7.52	$2.13	$13.30	$26.15	$40.86
10.0%	$-14.32	$-6.11	$3.37	$14.27	$26.73
11.0%	$-19.51	$-12.40	$-4.20	$5.21	$15.97

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $10.20

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $47.24

Results

Graham Number$104.13

Current Price$106.30

Margin of Safety-2.0%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 5.91%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 5.91%

Cost of equity (Re)11.25%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.26 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)52.58%

Debt weight (D/V)47.42%

Results

Current Price$106.30

Implied Near-term FCF Growth10.7%

Historical Revenue Growth4.8%

Historical Earnings Growth8.1%

Base FCF (TTM)$1.10B

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: —

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

This company does not pay a dividend. DDM is not applicable — the intrinsic value shown uses D0 = $0 unless you enter a hypothetical dividend above.

DDM Intrinsic Value / share—

Current Price$106.30

Upside / Downside—

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $7.75B

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 6.9×

Net Debt($B)Default: $18.80B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$106.30

Current Price$106.30

Upside / Downside-0.0%

Implied EV$53.18B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	$8.80B	$13.80B	$18.80B	$23.80B	$28.80B
2.9x	$41.31	$25.85	$10.39	$-5.07	$-20.53
4.9x	$89.26	$73.80	$58.34	$42.88	$27.42
6.9x	$137.22	$121.76	$106.30	$90.84	$75.38
8.9x	$185.17	$169.71	$154.25	$138.79	$123.33
10.9x	$233.13	$217.67	$202.21	$186.75	$171.29

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