UGI — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($37.56)
DCF	$-20.49	-154.5%
Graham Number	$37.55	-0.0%
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: 36.4%
DDM	$30.90	-17.7%
EV/EBITDA	$37.60	+0.1%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $146.12M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 2.6% / EPS: -23.0%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 5.43%

Computed WACC: 5.43%

Cost of equity (Re)10.28%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.09 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)52.79%

Debt weight (D/V)47.21%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$-5.74

Current Price$37.56

Upside / Downside-115.3%

Net Debt (used)$6.96B

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	-3.0%	1.0%	5.0%	9.0%	13.0%
7.0%	$-20.39	$-17.95	$-15.11	$-11.83	$-8.05
8.0%	$-22.53	$-20.57	$-18.29	$-15.66	$-12.62
9.0%	$-24.02	$-22.38	$-20.49	$-18.30	$-15.79
10.0%	$-25.11	$-23.71	$-22.10	$-20.24	$-18.10
11.0%	$-25.94	$-24.73	$-23.33	$-21.72	$-19.87

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $2.69

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $23.30

Results

Graham Number$37.55

Current Price$37.56

Margin of Safety-0.0%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 5.43%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 5.43%

Cost of equity (Re)10.28%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.09 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)52.79%

Debt weight (D/V)47.21%

Results

Current Price$37.56

Implied Near-term FCF Growth20.3%

Historical Revenue Growth2.6%

Historical Earnings Growth-23.0%

Base FCF (TTM)$146.12M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $1.50

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$30.90

Current Price$37.56

Upside / Downside-17.7%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $1.61B

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 9.3×

Net Debt($B)Default: $6.96B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$37.60

Current Price$37.56

Upside / Downside+0.1%

Implied EV$15.03B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	$2.96B	$4.96B	$6.96B	$8.96B	$10.96B
5.3x	$26.20	$16.88	$7.56	$-1.76	$-11.08
7.3x	$41.22	$31.90	$22.58	$13.26	$3.94
9.3x	$56.24	$46.92	$37.60	$28.28	$18.96
11.3x	$71.26	$61.94	$52.62	$43.30	$33.99
13.3x	$86.28	$76.96	$67.64	$58.32	$49.01

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