UGP

UGP — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

ModelIntrinsic Valuevs Price ($5.05)
DCF$2.50-50.4%
Graham Number$5.91+17.0%
Reverse DCFimplied g: 12.6%
DDM$6.59+30.5%
EV/EBITDA$7.18+42.2%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Yahoo: $724.99M
Rev: 4.7% / EPS: 10.1%
Default: 9% (no SEC data)

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$2.53
Current Price$5.05
Upside / Downside-49.9%
Net Debt (used)$14.47B
Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)
WACC \ Near-term2.1%6.1%10.1%14.1%18.1%
7.0%$3.13$6.39$10.16$14.50$19.47
8.0%$0.03$2.63$5.65$9.11$13.07
9.0%$-2.12$0.04$2.53$5.39$8.66
10.0%$-3.69$-1.86$0.25$2.67$5.44
11.0%$-4.88$-3.30$-1.48$0.60$2.98

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

Graham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)
Yahoo: $0.52
Yahoo: $2.98

Results

Graham Number$5.91
Current Price$5.05
Margin of Safety+17.0%
Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

Default: 9% (no SEC data)

Results

Current Price$5.05
Implied Near-term FCF Growth12.6%
Historical Revenue Growth4.7%
Historical Earnings Growth10.1%
Base FCF (TTM)$724.99M
Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Yahoo: $0.32

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$6.59
Current Price$5.05
Upside / Downside+30.5%
Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

Yahoo: $5.93B
Current: 3.7×
Default: $14.47B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$7.18
Current Price$5.05
Upside / Downside+42.2%
Implied EV$22.14B
Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)
Mult \ Net Debt$6.47B$10.47B$14.47B$18.47B$22.47B
-0.3x$-7.53$-11.27$-15.02$-18.76$-22.50
1.7x$3.57$-0.18$-3.92$-7.66$-11.40
3.7x$14.66$10.92$7.18$3.44$-0.31
5.7x$25.76$22.02$18.28$14.53$10.79
7.7x$36.86$33.12$29.37$25.63$21.89