UMH-PD — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($21.95)
DCF	$17.41	-20.7%
Graham Number	$5.49	-75.0%
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: 10.3%
DDM	$32.75	+49.2%
EV/EBITDA	$58.57	+166.8%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $63.65M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 8.2% / EPS: —

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 3.75%

Computed WACC: 3.75%

Cost of equity (Re)9.98%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.03 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)37.59%

Debt weight (D/V)62.41%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$175.60

Current Price$21.95

Upside / Downside+700.0%

Net Debt (used)$691.83M

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	0.2%	4.2%	8.2%	12.2%	16.2%
7.0%	$18.37	$25.64	$34.07	$43.80	$54.96
8.0%	$11.64	$17.47	$24.22	$32.00	$40.91
9.0%	$6.98	$11.82	$17.41	$23.85	$31.22
10.0%	$3.57	$7.68	$12.43	$17.89	$24.13
11.0%	$0.97	$4.53	$8.63	$13.34	$18.73

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $0.20

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $6.87

Results

Graham Number$5.49

Current Price$21.95

Margin of Safety-75.0%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 3.75%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 3.75%

Cost of equity (Re)9.98%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.03 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)37.59%

Debt weight (D/V)62.41%

Results

Current Price$21.95

Implied Near-term FCF Growth-13.5%

Historical Revenue Growth8.2%

Historical Earnings Growth—

Base FCF (TTM)$63.65M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $1.59

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$32.75

Current Price$21.95

Upside / Downside+49.2%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $115.07M

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 25.2×

Net Debt($B)Default: $691.83M

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$58.57

Current Price$21.95

Upside / Downside+166.8%

Implied EV$2.90B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	-$1.31B	-$308.17M	$691.83M	$1.69B	$2.69B
21.2x	$99.44	$72.90	$46.35	$19.80	$-6.75
23.2x	$105.55	$79.01	$52.46	$25.91	$-0.64
25.2x	$111.66	$85.12	$58.57	$32.02	$5.47
27.2x	$117.77	$91.23	$64.68	$38.13	$11.58
29.2x	$123.88	$97.34	$70.79	$44.24	$17.69

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