UNP — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($261.81)
DCF	$76.06	-70.9%
Graham Number	$91.64	-65.0%
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: 22.4%
DDM	$113.71	-56.6%
EV/EBITDA	$266.98	+2.0%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $3.92B

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: -0.6% / EPS: 6.8%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 7.87%

Computed WACC: 7.87%

Cost of equity (Re)9.54%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.95 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)82.56%

Debt weight (D/V)17.44%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$104.03

Current Price$261.81

Upside / Downside-60.3%

Net Debt (used)$31.31B

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	-1.2%	2.8%	6.8%	10.8%	14.8%
7.0%	$78.49	$104.73	$135.18	$170.36	$210.80
8.0%	$54.74	$75.80	$100.23	$128.40	$160.76
9.0%	$38.30	$55.80	$76.06	$99.41	$126.19
10.0%	$26.24	$41.14	$58.37	$78.19	$100.91
11.0%	$17.03	$29.95	$44.86	$62.01	$81.63

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $11.99

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $31.13

Results

Graham Number$91.64

Current Price$261.81

Margin of Safety-65.0%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 7.87%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 7.87%

Cost of equity (Re)9.54%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.95 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)82.56%

Debt weight (D/V)17.44%

Results

Current Price$261.81

Implied Near-term FCF Growth18.5%

Historical Revenue Growth-0.6%

Historical Earnings Growth6.8%

Base FCF (TTM)$3.92B

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $5.52

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$113.71

Current Price$261.81

Upside / Downside-56.6%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $12.44B

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 15.3×

Net Debt($B)Default: $31.31B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$266.98

Current Price$261.81

Upside / Downside+2.0%

Implied EV$189.73B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	$15.31B	$23.31B	$31.31B	$39.31B	$47.31B
11.3x	$210.10	$196.62	$183.14	$169.65	$156.17
13.3x	$252.02	$238.54	$225.06	$211.58	$198.09
15.3x	$293.94	$280.46	$266.98	$253.50	$240.02
17.3x	$335.86	$322.38	$308.90	$295.42	$281.94
19.3x	$377.79	$364.30	$350.82	$337.34	$323.86

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