UPBD

UPBD — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

ModelIntrinsic Valuevs Price ($20.88)
DCF$668.03+3099.4%
Graham Number$19.86-4.9%
Reverse DCFimplied g: -20.0%
DDM$32.14+53.9%
EV/EBITDA$20.95+0.4%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Yahoo: $1.63B
Rev: 10.9% / EPS: -38.2%
Computed: 8.60%
Computed WACC: 8.60%
Cost of equity (Re)14.43%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.84 × ERP 5.50%)
Cost of debt (Rd)6.09%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))
Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)
Equity weight (E/V)39.44%
Debt weight (D/V)60.56%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$718.39
Current Price$20.88
Upside / Downside+3340.6%
Net Debt (used)$1.74B
Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)
WACC \ Near-term2.9%6.9%10.9%14.9%18.9%
7.0%$698.39$840.03$1003.70$1191.89$1407.32
8.0%$561.93$675.12$805.75$955.81$1127.43
9.0%$467.71$561.31$669.20$793.02$934.49
10.0%$398.81$478.13$569.45$674.15$793.66
11.0%$346.28$414.75$493.49$583.67$686.52

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

Graham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)
Yahoo: $1.46
Yahoo: $12.01

Results

Graham Number$19.86
Current Price$20.88
Margin of Safety-4.9%
Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

Computed: 8.60%
Computed WACC: 8.60%
Cost of equity (Re)14.43%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.84 × ERP 5.50%)
Cost of debt (Rd)6.09%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))
Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)
Equity weight (E/V)39.44%
Debt weight (D/V)60.56%

Results

Current Price$20.88
Implied Near-term FCF Growth-20.0%
Historical Revenue Growth10.9%
Historical Earnings Growth-38.2%
Base FCF (TTM)$1.63B
Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Yahoo: $1.56

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$32.14
Current Price$20.88
Upside / Downside+53.9%
Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

Yahoo: $488.10M
Current: 6.0×
Default: $1.74B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$20.95
Current Price$20.88
Upside / Downside+0.4%
Implied EV$2.95B
Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)
Mult \ Net Debt$1.74B$1.74B$1.74B$1.74B$1.74B
2.0x$-12.76$-12.76$-12.76$-12.76$-12.76
4.0x$4.10$4.10$4.10$4.10$4.10
6.0x$20.95$20.95$20.95$20.95$20.95
8.0x$37.81$37.81$37.81$37.81$37.81
10.0x$54.67$54.67$54.67$54.67$54.67