UPS — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($115.96)
DCF	$91.90	-20.8%
Graham Number	$53.11	-54.2%
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: 8.1%
DDM	$135.14	+16.5%
EV/EBITDA	$132.40	+14.2%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $5.19B

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: -3.2% / EPS: 4.6%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 7.97%

Computed WACC: 7.97%

Cost of equity (Re)10.28%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.09 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)77.50%

Debt weight (D/V)22.50%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$115.22

Current Price$115.96

Upside / Downside-0.6%

Net Debt (used)$22.70B

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	-3.0%	1.0%	5.0%	9.0%	13.0%
7.0%	$92.95	$117.92	$146.97	$180.59	$219.31
8.0%	$70.98	$91.08	$114.42	$141.40	$172.44
9.0%	$55.76	$72.49	$91.90	$114.30	$140.05
10.0%	$44.58	$58.85	$75.39	$94.45	$116.32
11.0%	$36.02	$48.43	$62.77	$79.28	$98.21

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $6.56

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $19.11

Results

Graham Number$53.11

Current Price$115.96

Margin of Safety-54.2%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 7.97%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 7.97%

Cost of equity (Re)10.28%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.09 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)77.50%

Debt weight (D/V)22.50%

Results

Current Price$115.96

Implied Near-term FCF Growth5.1%

Historical Revenue Growth-3.2%

Historical Earnings Growth4.6%

Base FCF (TTM)$5.19B

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $6.56

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$135.14

Current Price$115.96

Upside / Downside+16.5%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $12.21B

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 9.9×

Net Debt($B)Default: $22.70B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$132.40

Current Price$115.96

Upside / Downside+14.2%

Implied EV$121.19B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	$10.70B	$16.70B	$22.70B	$28.70B	$34.70B
5.9x	$82.87	$74.80	$66.73	$58.67	$50.60
7.9x	$115.70	$107.63	$99.57	$91.50	$83.44
9.9x	$148.54	$140.47	$132.40	$124.34	$116.27
11.9x	$181.37	$173.30	$165.24	$157.17	$149.11
13.9x	$214.20	$206.14	$198.07	$190.01	$181.94

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