UPST — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($28.28)
DCF	$-280.74	-1092.7%
Graham Number	$9.28	-67.2%
Reverse DCF	—	—
DDM	—	—
EV/EBITDA	$29.23	+3.4%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: -$275.45M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 34.4% / EPS: —

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 10.35%

Computed WACC: 10.35%

Cost of equity (Re)17.42%(Rf 4.30% + β 2.39 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)59.38%

Debt weight (D/V)40.62%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$-224.41

Current Price$28.28

Upside / Downside-893.5%

Net Debt (used)$1.24B

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	26.4%	30.4%	34.4%	38.4%	42.4%
7.0%	$-321.78	$-372.39	$-429.50	$-493.74	$-565.74
8.0%	$-256.75	$-296.42	$-341.18	$-391.50	$-447.88
9.0%	$-212.23	$-244.43	$-280.74	$-321.54	$-367.24
10.0%	$-179.99	$-206.78	$-236.97	$-270.89	$-308.87
11.0%	$-155.66	$-178.37	$-203.96	$-232.70	$-264.86

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $0.47

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $8.15

Results

Graham Number$9.28

Current Price$28.28

Margin of Safety-67.2%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 10.35%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 10.35%

Cost of equity (Re)17.42%(Rf 4.30% + β 2.39 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)59.38%

Debt weight (D/V)40.62%

Results

Reverse DCF requires positive TTM free cash flow.

Current Price$28.28

Implied Near-term FCF Growth—

Historical Revenue Growth34.4%

Historical Earnings Growth—

Base FCF (TTM)-$275.45M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: —

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

This company does not pay a dividend. DDM is not applicable — the intrinsic value shown uses D0 = $0 unless you enter a hypothetical dividend above.

DDM Intrinsic Value / share—

Current Price$28.28

Upside / Downside—

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $99.13M

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 40.5×

Net Debt($B)Default: $1.24B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$29.23

Current Price$28.28

Upside / Downside+3.4%

Implied EV$4.01B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	$1.24B	$1.24B	$1.24B	$1.24B	$1.24B
36.5x	$25.05	$25.05	$25.05	$25.05	$25.05
38.5x	$27.14	$27.14	$27.14	$27.14	$27.14
40.5x	$29.23	$29.23	$29.23	$29.23	$29.23
42.5x	$31.32	$31.32	$31.32	$31.32	$31.32
44.5x	$33.41	$33.41	$33.41	$33.41	$33.41

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