VALE

VALE — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

ModelIntrinsic Valuevs Price ($17.18)
DCF$46.14+168.5%
Graham Number$10.20-40.7%
Reverse DCFimplied g: -5.3%
DDM$25.75+49.9%
EV/EBITDA$18.26+6.3%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Yahoo: $15.45B
Rev: 0.5% / EPS: —
Default: 9% (no SEC data)

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$46.14
Current Price$17.18
Upside / Downside+168.5%
Net Debt (used)$74.23B
Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)
WACC \ Near-term-3.0%1.0%5.0%9.0%13.0%
7.0%$46.68$59.64$74.71$92.16$112.25
8.0%$35.28$45.71$57.82$71.83$87.93
9.0%$27.38$36.06$46.14$57.76$71.12
10.0%$21.58$28.99$37.57$47.46$58.81
11.0%$17.14$23.58$31.02$39.59$49.41

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

Graham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)
Yahoo: $0.55
Yahoo: $8.40

Results

Graham Number$10.20
Current Price$17.18
Margin of Safety-40.7%
Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

Default: 9% (no SEC data)

Results

Current Price$17.18
Implied Near-term FCF Growth-5.3%
Historical Revenue Growth0.5%
Historical Earnings Growth
Base FCF (TTM)$15.45B
Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Yahoo: $1.25

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$25.75
Current Price$17.18
Upside / Downside+49.9%
Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

Yahoo: $76.86B
Current: 2.0×
Default: $74.23B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$18.26
Current Price$17.18
Upside / Downside+6.3%
Implied EV$152.19B
Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)
Mult \ Net Debt$36.23B$55.23B$74.23B$93.23B$112.23B
-2.0x$-44.86$-49.31$-53.76$-58.21$-62.66
-0.0x$-8.85$-13.30$-17.75$-22.20$-26.65
2.0x$27.16$22.71$18.26$13.81$9.36
4.0x$63.18$58.73$54.27$49.82$45.37
6.0x$99.19$94.74$90.29$85.84$81.39