VLY — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($12.64)
DCF	$-3.32	-126.3%
Graham Number	$17.44	+38.0%
Reverse DCF	—	—
DDM	$9.06	-28.3%
EV/EBITDA	—	—

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: —

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 38.3% / EPS: 66.7%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 6.71%

Computed WACC: 6.71%

Cost of equity (Re)10.16%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.06 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)66.10%

Debt weight (D/V)33.90%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$-3.32

Current Price$12.64

Upside / Downside-126.3%

Net Debt (used)$1.85B

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	58.7%	62.7%	66.7%	70.7%	74.7%
7.0%	$-3.32	$-3.32	$-3.32	$-3.32	$-3.32
8.0%	$-3.32	$-3.32	$-3.32	$-3.32	$-3.32
9.0%	$-3.32	$-3.32	$-3.32	$-3.32	$-3.32
10.0%	$-3.32	$-3.32	$-3.32	$-3.32	$-3.32
11.0%	$-3.32	$-3.32	$-3.32	$-3.32	$-3.32

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $1.01

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $13.39

Results

Graham Number$17.44

Current Price$12.64

Margin of Safety+38.0%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 6.71%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 6.71%

Cost of equity (Re)10.16%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.06 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)66.10%

Debt weight (D/V)33.90%

Results

Reverse DCF requires positive TTM free cash flow.

Current Price$12.64

Implied Near-term FCF Growth—

Historical Revenue Growth38.3%

Historical Earnings Growth66.7%

Base FCF (TTM)—

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $0.44

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$9.06

Current Price$12.64

Upside / Downside-28.3%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: —

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: —×

Net Debt($B)Default: $1.85B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$-3.32

Current Price$12.64

Upside / Downside-126.3%

Implied EV$0

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