VST

VST — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

ModelIntrinsic Valuevs Price ($163.36)
DCF$-108.07-166.2%
Graham Number$22.02-86.5%
Reverse DCF
DDM$18.75-88.5%
EV/EBITDA$169.80+3.9%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Yahoo: -$586.75M
Rev: 13.6% / EPS: -52.3%
Computed: 8.97%
Computed WACC: 8.97%
Cost of equity (Re)12.28%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.45 × ERP 5.50%)
Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)
Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)
Equity weight (E/V)73.05%
Debt weight (D/V)26.95%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$-108.33
Current Price$163.36
Upside / Downside-166.3%
Net Debt (used)$19.62B
Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)
WACC \ Near-term5.6%9.6%13.6%17.6%21.6%
7.0%$-110.88$-120.99$-132.64$-145.99$-161.23
8.0%$-100.77$-108.82$-118.09$-128.71$-140.82
9.0%$-93.79$-100.44$-108.07$-116.81$-126.77
10.0%$-88.70$-94.32$-100.76$-108.13$-116.53
11.0%$-84.82$-89.66$-95.20$-101.54$-108.75

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

Graham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)
Yahoo: $2.78
Yahoo: $7.75

Results

Graham Number$22.02
Current Price$163.36
Margin of Safety-86.5%
Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

Computed: 8.97%
Computed WACC: 8.97%
Cost of equity (Re)12.28%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.45 × ERP 5.50%)
Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)
Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)
Equity weight (E/V)73.05%
Debt weight (D/V)26.95%

Results

Reverse DCF requires positive TTM free cash flow.
Current Price$163.36
Implied Near-term FCF Growth
Historical Revenue Growth13.6%
Historical Earnings Growth-52.3%
Base FCF (TTM)-$586.75M
Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Yahoo: $0.91

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$18.75
Current Price$163.36
Upside / Downside-88.5%
Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

Yahoo: $5.02B
Current: 15.4×
Default: $19.62B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$169.80
Current Price$163.36
Upside / Downside+3.9%
Implied EV$77.15B
Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)
Mult \ Net Debt$9.62B$14.62B$19.62B$24.62B$29.62B
11.4x$140.00$125.24$110.49$95.73$80.97
13.4x$169.66$154.90$140.14$125.38$110.63
15.4x$199.31$184.55$169.80$155.04$140.28
17.4x$228.97$214.21$199.45$184.70$169.94
19.4x$258.62$243.86$229.11$214.35$199.59