XOM — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($146.19)
DCF	$46.43	-68.2%
Graham Number	$96.73	-33.8%
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: 23.1%
DDM	$84.87	-41.9%
EV/EBITDA	$147.93	+1.2%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $12.92B

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: -1.3% / EPS: -11.0%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 5.96%

Computed WACC: 5.96%

Cost of equity (Re)6.27%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.36 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)2.05%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)93.40%

Debt weight (D/V)6.60%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$94.72

Current Price$146.19

Upside / Downside-35.2%

Net Debt (used)$32.86B

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	-3.0%	1.0%	5.0%	9.0%	13.0%
7.0%	$46.90	$57.97	$70.85	$85.76	$102.94
8.0%	$37.15	$46.07	$56.42	$68.39	$82.15
9.0%	$30.40	$37.82	$46.43	$56.37	$67.78
10.0%	$25.45	$31.78	$39.11	$47.56	$57.26
11.0%	$21.65	$27.15	$33.51	$40.84	$49.23

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $6.70

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $62.07

Results

Graham Number$96.73

Current Price$146.19

Margin of Safety-33.8%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 5.96%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 5.96%

Cost of equity (Re)6.27%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.36 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)2.05%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)93.40%

Debt weight (D/V)6.60%

Results

Current Price$146.19

Implied Near-term FCF Growth11.4%

Historical Revenue Growth-1.3%

Historical Earnings Growth-11.0%

Base FCF (TTM)$12.92B

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $4.12

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$84.87

Current Price$146.19

Upside / Downside-41.9%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $58.89B

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 11.1×

Net Debt($B)Default: $32.86B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$147.93

Current Price$146.19

Upside / Downside+1.2%

Implied EV$651.04B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	$16.86B	$24.86B	$32.86B	$40.86B	$48.86B
7.1x	$95.39	$93.47	$91.56	$89.64	$87.73
9.1x	$123.57	$121.66	$119.74	$117.83	$115.91
11.1x	$151.75	$149.84	$147.93	$146.01	$144.10
13.1x	$179.94	$178.02	$176.11	$174.20	$172.28
15.1x	$208.12	$206.21	$204.29	$202.38	$200.47

← Overview Financial Statements ← Companies