XPO — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($215.18)
DCF	$7.01	-96.7%
Graham Number	$30.80	-85.7%
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: 37.6%
DDM	—	—
EV/EBITDA	$215.18	+0.0%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $266.50M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 4.6% / EPS: -25.1%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 11.82%

Computed WACC: 11.82%

Cost of equity (Re)13.77%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.72 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)85.84%

Debt weight (D/V)14.16%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$-5.21

Current Price$215.18

Upside / Downside-102.4%

Net Debt (used)$3.86B

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	-3.0%	1.0%	5.0%	9.0%	13.0%
7.0%	$7.35	$15.50	$24.97	$35.94	$48.57
8.0%	$0.18	$6.74	$14.35	$23.16	$33.28
9.0%	$-4.79	$0.67	$7.01	$14.32	$22.71
10.0%	$-8.43	$-3.77	$1.62	$7.84	$14.97
11.0%	$-11.22	$-7.18	$-2.50	$2.89	$9.07

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $2.65

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $15.91

Results

Graham Number$30.80

Current Price$215.18

Margin of Safety-85.7%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 11.82%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 11.82%

Cost of equity (Re)13.77%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.72 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)85.84%

Debt weight (D/V)14.16%

Results

Current Price$215.18

Implied Near-term FCF Growth46.8%

Historical Revenue Growth4.6%

Historical Earnings Growth-25.1%

Base FCF (TTM)$266.50M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: —

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

This company does not pay a dividend. DDM is not applicable — the intrinsic value shown uses D0 = $0 unless you enter a hypothetical dividend above.

DDM Intrinsic Value / share—

Current Price$215.18

Upside / Downside—

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $1.26B

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 23.1×

Net Debt($B)Default: $3.86B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$215.18

Current Price$215.18

Upside / Downside+0.0%

Implied EV$29.07B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	$1.86B	$2.86B	$3.86B	$4.86B	$5.86B
19.1x	$189.37	$180.84	$172.30	$163.76	$155.23
21.1x	$210.81	$202.28	$193.74	$185.21	$176.67
23.1x	$232.26	$223.72	$215.18	$206.65	$198.11
25.1x	$253.70	$245.16	$236.63	$228.09	$219.56
27.1x	$275.14	$266.61	$258.07	$249.53	$241.00

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