ZTO

ZTO — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

ModelIntrinsic Valuevs Price ($23.36)
DCF$133.96+473.4%
Graham Number$20.40-12.7%
Reverse DCFimplied g: -20.0%
DDM$13.39-42.7%
EV/EBITDA$34.71+48.6%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Yahoo: $2.46B
Rev: 11.1% / EPS: 6.9%
Default: 9% (no SEC data)

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$133.77
Current Price$23.36
Upside / Downside+472.6%
Net Debt (used)-$12.93B
Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)
WACC \ Near-term3.1%7.1%11.1%15.1%19.1%
7.0%$138.47$160.84$186.68$216.39$250.39
8.0%$116.87$134.75$155.37$179.06$206.14
9.0%$101.96$116.74$133.77$153.31$175.64
10.0%$91.05$103.57$117.99$134.52$153.38
11.0%$82.73$93.55$105.98$120.21$136.44

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

Graham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)
Yahoo: $1.57
Yahoo: $11.78

Results

Graham Number$20.40
Current Price$23.36
Margin of Safety-12.7%
Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

Default: 9% (no SEC data)

Results

Current Price$23.36
Implied Near-term FCF Growth-20.0%
Historical Revenue Growth11.1%
Historical Earnings Growth6.9%
Base FCF (TTM)$2.46B
Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Yahoo: $0.65

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$13.39
Current Price$23.36
Upside / Downside-42.7%
Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

Yahoo: $14.01B
Current: 0.5×
Default: -$12.93B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$34.71
Current Price$23.36
Upside / Downside+48.6%
Implied EV$6.37B
Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)
Mult \ Net Debt-$18.93B-$15.93B-$12.93B-$9.93B-$6.93B
-3.5x$-55.28$-60.68$-66.07$-71.47$-76.86
-1.5x$-4.89$-10.29$-15.68$-21.08$-26.47
0.5x$45.50$40.10$34.71$29.31$23.92
2.5x$95.89$90.49$85.10$79.70$74.31
4.5x$146.28$140.88$135.49$130.09$124.70