ADM — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($67.22)
DCF	$60.26	-10.4%
Graham Number	$48.75	-27.5%
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: 6.5%
DDM	$42.85	-36.3%
EV/EBITDA	$67.83	+0.9%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $2.15B

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: -13.7% / EPS: -19.7%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 7.60%

Computed WACC: 7.60%

Cost of equity (Re)8.06%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.68 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)7.71%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)76.82%

Debt weight (D/V)23.18%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$82.02

Current Price$67.22

Upside / Downside+22.0%

Net Debt (used)$8.71B

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	-3.0%	1.0%	5.0%	9.0%	13.0%
7.0%	$60.93	$76.91	$95.50	$117.02	$141.81
8.0%	$46.87	$59.73	$74.67	$91.94	$111.81
9.0%	$37.12	$47.83	$60.26	$74.60	$91.07
10.0%	$29.97	$39.11	$49.69	$61.89	$75.89
11.0%	$24.49	$32.43	$41.61	$52.18	$64.30

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $2.23

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $47.36

Results

Graham Number$48.75

Current Price$67.22

Margin of Safety-27.5%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 7.60%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 7.60%

Cost of equity (Re)8.06%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.68 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)7.71%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)76.82%

Debt weight (D/V)23.18%

Results

Current Price$67.22

Implied Near-term FCF Growth2.4%

Historical Revenue Growth-13.7%

Historical Earnings Growth-19.7%

Base FCF (TTM)$2.15B

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $2.08

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$42.85

Current Price$67.22

Upside / Downside-36.3%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $2.52B

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 16.4×

Net Debt($B)Default: $8.71B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$67.83

Current Price$67.22

Upside / Downside+0.9%

Implied EV$41.35B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	$4.71B	$6.71B	$8.71B	$10.71B	$12.71B
12.4x	$55.19	$51.03	$46.88	$42.72	$38.56
14.4x	$65.67	$61.51	$57.35	$53.20	$49.04
16.4x	$76.14	$71.99	$67.83	$63.68	$59.52
18.4x	$86.62	$82.47	$78.31	$74.15	$70.00
20.4x	$97.10	$92.94	$88.79	$84.63	$80.48

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