AFG — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($134.50)
DCF	$135.00	+0.4%
Graham Number	$114.47	-14.9%
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: 18.1%
DDM	$72.51	-46.1%
EV/EBITDA	$132.78	-1.3%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $304.62M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: -3.4% / EPS: 18.2%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 7.43%

Computed WACC: 7.43%

Cost of equity (Re)8.08%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.69 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)4.86%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)84.62%

Debt weight (D/V)15.38%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$184.97

Current Price$134.50

Upside / Downside+37.5%

Net Debt (used)$220.00M

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	10.2%	14.2%	18.2%	22.2%	26.2%
7.0%	$145.98	$173.41	$204.86	$240.75	$281.54
8.0%	$116.77	$138.54	$163.46	$191.89	$224.18
9.0%	$96.67	$114.55	$135.00	$158.30	$184.75
10.0%	$82.03	$97.07	$114.27	$133.85	$156.07
11.0%	$70.91	$83.81	$98.55	$115.31	$134.32

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $10.08

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $57.78

Results

Graham Number$114.47

Current Price$134.50

Margin of Safety-14.9%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 7.43%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 7.43%

Cost of equity (Re)8.08%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.69 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)4.86%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)84.62%

Debt weight (D/V)15.38%

Results

Current Price$134.50

Implied Near-term FCF Growth12.9%

Historical Revenue Growth-3.4%

Historical Earnings Growth18.2%

Base FCF (TTM)$304.62M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $3.52

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$72.51

Current Price$134.50

Upside / Downside-46.1%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $1.27B

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 8.9×

Net Debt($B)Default: $220.00M

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$132.78

Current Price$134.50

Upside / Downside-1.3%

Implied EV$11.30B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	-$1.78B	-$780.00M	$220.00M	$1.22B	$2.22B
4.9x	$95.76	$83.77	$71.79	$59.80	$47.81
6.9x	$126.26	$114.27	$102.28	$90.30	$78.31
8.9x	$156.75	$144.77	$132.78	$120.79	$108.80
10.9x	$187.25	$175.26	$163.27	$151.29	$139.30
12.9x	$217.74	$205.76	$193.77	$181.78	$169.79

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