AYI

AYI — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

ModelIntrinsic Valuevs Price ($295.64)
DCF$492.34+66.5%
Graham Number$163.69-44.6%
Reverse DCFimplied g: 11.7%
DDM$14.63-95.1%
EV/EBITDA$293.70-0.7%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Yahoo: $370.28M
Rev: 20.2% / EPS: 14.0%
Computed: 11.42%
Computed WACC: 11.42%
Cost of equity (Re)12.57%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.50 × ERP 5.50%)
Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)
Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)
Equity weight (E/V)90.89%
Debt weight (D/V)9.11%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$335.00
Current Price$295.64
Upside / Downside+13.3%
Net Debt (used)$534.00M
Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)
WACC \ Near-term12.2%16.2%20.2%24.2%28.2%
7.0%$538.07$639.13$754.72$886.39$1035.77
8.0%$427.70$507.74$599.21$703.34$821.39
9.0%$351.81$417.42$492.34$577.57$674.14
10.0%$296.57$351.70$414.60$486.11$567.08
11.0%$254.66$301.86$355.67$416.79$485.96

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

Graham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)
Yahoo: $13.00
Yahoo: $91.61

Results

Graham Number$163.69
Current Price$295.64
Margin of Safety-44.6%
Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

Computed: 11.42%
Computed WACC: 11.42%
Cost of equity (Re)12.57%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.50 × ERP 5.50%)
Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)
Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)
Equity weight (E/V)90.89%
Debt weight (D/V)9.11%

Results

Current Price$295.64
Implied Near-term FCF Growth18.0%
Historical Revenue Growth20.2%
Historical Earnings Growth14.0%
Base FCF (TTM)$370.28M
Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Yahoo: $0.71

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$14.63
Current Price$295.64
Upside / Downside-95.1%
Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

Yahoo: $754.90M
Current: 12.6×
Default: $534.00M

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$293.70
Current Price$295.64
Upside / Downside-0.7%
Implied EV$9.54B
Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)
Mult \ Net Debt-$1.47B-$466.00M$534.00M$1.53B$2.53B
8.6x$260.45$227.84$195.22$162.61$130.00
10.6x$309.69$277.08$244.46$211.85$179.24
12.6x$358.93$326.31$293.70$261.09$228.48
14.6x$408.17$375.55$342.94$310.33$277.72
16.6x$457.41$424.79$392.18$359.57$326.95