HOG — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($18.00)
DCF	$-83.11	-561.7%
Graham Number	$41.94	+133.0%
Reverse DCF	—	—
DDM	$15.04	-16.5%
EV/EBITDA	$17.18	-4.6%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: -$460.21M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: -27.8% / EPS: —

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 5.02%

Computed WACC: 5.02%

Cost of equity (Re)12.02%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.40 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)41.74%

Debt weight (D/V)58.26%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$-192.48

Current Price$18.00

Upside / Downside-1169.3%

Net Debt (used)$1.74B

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	-3.0%	1.0%	5.0%	9.0%	13.0%
7.0%	$-83.69	$-97.64	$-113.87	$-132.65	$-154.28
8.0%	$-71.42	$-82.65	$-95.69	$-110.76	$-128.10
9.0%	$-62.92	$-72.26	$-83.11	$-95.62	$-110.00
10.0%	$-56.67	$-64.65	$-73.88	$-84.53	$-96.75
11.0%	$-51.89	$-58.82	$-66.83	$-76.06	$-86.63

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $2.78

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $28.13

Results

Graham Number$41.94

Current Price$18.00

Margin of Safety+133.0%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 5.02%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 5.02%

Cost of equity (Re)12.02%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.40 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)41.74%

Debt weight (D/V)58.26%

Results

Reverse DCF requires positive TTM free cash flow.

Current Price$18.00

Implied Near-term FCF Growth—

Historical Revenue Growth-27.8%

Historical Earnings Growth—

Base FCF (TTM)-$460.21M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $0.73

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$15.04

Current Price$18.00

Upside / Downside-16.5%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $620.63M

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 6.1×

Net Debt($B)Default: $1.74B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$17.18

Current Price$18.00

Upside / Downside-4.6%

Implied EV$3.77B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	$1.74B	$1.74B	$1.74B	$1.74B	$1.74B
2.1x	$-3.83	$-3.83	$-3.83	$-3.83	$-3.83
4.1x	$6.67	$6.67	$6.67	$6.67	$6.67
6.1x	$17.18	$17.18	$17.18	$17.18	$17.18
8.1x	$27.69	$27.69	$27.69	$27.69	$27.69
10.1x	$38.19	$38.19	$38.19	$38.19	$38.19

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