MRNA — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($52.84)
DCF	$-47.59	-190.1%
Graham Number	—	—
Reverse DCF	—	—
DDM	—	—
EV/EBITDA	—	—

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: -$1.33B

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: -29.8% / EPS: —

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 10.97%

Computed WACC: 10.97%

Cost of equity (Re)11.66%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.34 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)94.12%

Debt weight (D/V)5.88%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$-33.72

Current Price$52.84

Upside / Downside-163.8%

Net Debt (used)-$4.49B

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	-3.0%	1.0%	5.0%	9.0%	13.0%
7.0%	$-48.09	$-60.12	$-74.11	$-90.31	$-108.96
8.0%	$-37.51	$-47.19	$-58.44	$-71.43	$-86.39
9.0%	$-30.18	$-38.24	$-47.59	$-58.38	$-70.78
10.0%	$-24.80	$-31.67	$-39.64	$-48.82	$-59.35
11.0%	$-20.67	$-26.65	$-33.56	$-41.51	$-50.63

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $-7.26

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $21.95

Results

Graham Number requires positive EPS and positive Book Value per share. EPS is zero or negative.

Graham Number—

Current Price$52.84

Margin of Safety—

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 10.97%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 10.97%

Cost of equity (Re)11.66%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.34 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)94.12%

Debt weight (D/V)5.88%

Results

Reverse DCF requires positive TTM free cash flow.

Current Price$52.84

Implied Near-term FCF Growth—

Historical Revenue Growth-29.8%

Historical Earnings Growth—

Base FCF (TTM)-$1.33B

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: —

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

This company does not pay a dividend. DDM is not applicable — the intrinsic value shown uses D0 = $0 unless you enter a hypothetical dividend above.

DDM Intrinsic Value / share—

Current Price$52.84

Upside / Downside—

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: -$2.86B

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: -5.7×

Net Debt($B)Default: -$4.49B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$52.84

Current Price$52.84

Upside / Downside-0.0%

Implied EV$16.38B

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