VLO — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($214.91)
DCF	$13371509.30	+6221811.2%
Graham Number	$119.15	-44.6%
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: 6.8%
DDM	$98.88	-54.0%
EV/EBITDA	$220.14	+2.4%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $3.72B

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: -2.1% / EPS: 317.9%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 7.84%

Computed WACC: 7.84%

Cost of equity (Re)8.27%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.72 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)6.80%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)85.09%

Debt weight (D/V)14.91%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$17768003.15

Current Price$214.91

Upside / Downside+8267548.4%

Net Debt (used)$7.02B

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	309.9%	313.9%	317.9%	321.9%	325.9%
7.0%	$20425471.05	$21441673.44	$22497925.80	$23595400.45	$24735292.38
8.0%	$15470665.07	$16240347.49	$17040363.84	$17871602.06	$18734967.20
9.0%	$12128235.17	$12731619.72	$13358783.97	$14010423.98	$14687249.25
10.0%	$9746197.83	$10231067.84	$10735046.58	$11258693.39	$11802578.41
11.0%	$7980010.95	$8377007.38	$8789649.24	$9218394.47	$9663709.88

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $7.95

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $79.36

Results

Graham Number$119.15

Current Price$214.91

Margin of Safety-44.6%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 7.84%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 7.84%

Cost of equity (Re)8.27%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.72 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)6.80%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)85.09%

Debt weight (D/V)14.91%

Results

Current Price$214.91

Implied Near-term FCF Growth3.5%

Historical Revenue Growth-2.1%

Historical Earnings Growth317.9%

Base FCF (TTM)$3.72B

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $4.80

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$98.88

Current Price$214.91

Upside / Downside-54.0%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $7.60B

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 9.8×

Net Debt($B)Default: $7.02B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$220.14

Current Price$214.91

Upside / Downside+2.4%

Implied EV$74.16B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	$3.02B	$5.02B	$7.02B	$9.02B	$11.02B
5.8x	$133.59	$127.04	$120.48	$113.92	$107.37
7.8x	$183.42	$176.87	$170.31	$163.75	$157.19
9.8x	$233.25	$226.69	$220.14	$213.58	$207.02
11.8x	$283.08	$276.52	$269.96	$263.41	$256.85
13.8x	$332.91	$326.35	$319.79	$313.23	$306.68

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