XEL — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($83.80)
DCF	$-578.60	-790.4%
Graham Number	$53.97	-35.6%
Reverse DCF	—	—
DDM	$48.82	-41.7%
EV/EBITDA	$88.38	+5.5%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: -$7.02B

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 14.1% / EPS: 20.8%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 5.50%

Computed WACC: 5.50%

Cost of equity (Re)6.64%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.43 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)4.96%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)57.87%

Debt weight (D/V)42.13%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$-1286.45

Current Price$83.80

Upside / Downside-1635.1%

Net Debt (used)$35.80B

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	12.8%	16.8%	20.8%	24.8%	28.8%
7.0%	$-626.58	$-729.12	$-846.33	$-979.76	$-1131.05
8.0%	$-513.76	$-594.92	$-687.63	$-793.10	$-912.61
9.0%	$-436.20	$-502.70	$-578.60	$-664.88	$-762.60
10.0%	$-379.76	$-435.61	$-499.30	$-571.66	$-653.56
11.0%	$-336.96	$-384.74	$-439.20	$-501.03	$-570.96

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $3.42

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $37.86

Results

Graham Number$53.97

Current Price$83.80

Margin of Safety-35.6%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 5.50%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 5.50%

Cost of equity (Re)6.64%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.43 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)4.96%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)57.87%

Debt weight (D/V)42.13%

Results

Reverse DCF requires positive TTM free cash flow.

Current Price$83.80

Implied Near-term FCF Growth—

Historical Revenue Growth14.1%

Historical Earnings Growth20.8%

Base FCF (TTM)-$7.02B

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $2.37

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$48.82

Current Price$83.80

Upside / Downside-41.7%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $5.98B

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 14.7×

Net Debt($B)Default: $35.80B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$88.38

Current Price$83.80

Upside / Downside+5.5%

Implied EV$88.08B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	$17.80B	$26.80B	$35.80B	$44.80B	$53.80B
10.7x	$78.37	$63.15	$47.94	$32.73	$17.51
12.7x	$98.59	$83.37	$68.16	$52.94	$37.73
14.7x	$118.81	$103.59	$88.38	$73.16	$57.95
16.7x	$139.02	$123.81	$108.60	$93.38	$78.17
18.7x	$159.24	$144.03	$128.81	$113.60	$98.38

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